You Have No Idea How Big DFTX Is Going to Be
The highest-leverage bet in the whole market is not AI, it's LSD.
Look, I’m not trying to convince you that psychedelics are the next big thing. I already did that. I’m trying to convince you that psychedelics, and in particular, LSD, and in particular Definium Therapeutics (which is the company behind DT120, Definium Therapeutics’ proprietary formulation of LSD) is going to make you rich.
And I mean obscenely rich.
And sure, I know what you’re thinking — with these premises I wouldn’t believe you either.
So, let’s do some math (this article is going to be very short).
Right now, Definium Therapeutics (ticker DFTX) is worth $5.731B. That’s 43.17 dollars a share times 132.74M shares. The company has no revenue, which, don’t get me wrong, is pretty common for a biotech startup, but anyway, they estimate $4.9B potential revenue for every 100,000 patients treated with DT120.
From Definium Therapeutics’ Corporate Presentation, page 36:
So what’s the big deal? DT120 could potentially treat major depressive disorder (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). So far they got one jaw-dropping phase 3 trial readout for MDD already out, two more phase 3 trial readouts for GAD to come in early Q3 2026, and in late Q3 2026 (worth mentioning: Definium, named MindMed at the time, was awarded Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA because of how groundbreaking DT120 proved to be for GAD in phase 2), not to mention a phase 3 trial for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) starting next year.
You’re confused? Here’s a quick snapshot from the Corporate Presentation, page 8, with all Definium’s clinical trials + upcoming catalysts for DT120.
Yeah, yeah, it all sounds very complicated, doesn’t it? But it isn’t.
In layman terms, psychedelics like LSD have been relegated to the fringes of medical science for ages. And not even the fringes, beyond the fringes: they were basically the scourge of the earth, or, as three-letter agencies use to say, a Schedule I drug, on par with heroin.
So what’s new?
Some years ago Definium Therapeutics and other companies kickstarted a new age of psychedelic medicine — this time based on clinical trials under the guidance of the FDA. And what they discovered was massive.
DT120, if all these trial readouts go well — which, of course, they might not, but let’s entertain the possibility everything’s peachy for a moment — is nothing short of a miracle drug. A single, best-in-class, almost-one-and-done formulation with a potential total addressable market (TAM) of 200 billion dollars. And I’m not fabricating numbers, it’s all in black and white on page 36 of Definium’s Corporate Presentation.
I promised you math, didn’t I? So here it is.
$2 billion revenue opportunity for every 1% of market penetration.
Let’s assume trials go well. How big of a market share will DT120 acquire by, say, 2030? Let’s be pessimistic: let’s say 5%.
5% times 2 billion dollars per 1% penetration = 10 billion dollars.
What’s the price to sales ratio for an average biotechnology company?
According to the dataset of Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at Stern School of Business of New York University, (dataset updated to January 2026), the answer is 7.31.
7.31 times 10 billion dollars gives us a market cap of 73.1 billion dollars.
You remember I told you there are currently 132.74M shares? Let’s be overly pessimistic and assume dilution up to 200M shares — mind you, more dilution is unlikely at this point, given the company has roughly over a billion dollars in cash, which should be enough to commercialize DT120 and get to profitability, but let’s crank caution up to eleven, just to be sure.
So, what’s 73.1 billion dollars divided by 200M shares? It’s $365.50 per share.
And I remind you, as of today, the company is worth 43.17 dollars a share.
That’s 8.46x.
Yes.
You read that right.
Over 8x in 4 years, assuming that trial results confirm the greatness the company has got us accustomed to so far.
And keep in mind, this is the base case, i.e., Definium gets to only 5% market penetration.
Let’s be bold and consider, just for the sake of it, that there is no dilution and DT120 is truly a miracle drug, with a 20% market penetration.
In such a case, the stock price would balloon to $2,202.80 per share. Which is 51.03x from today’s price.
What could go wrong
Many things could go wrong. In no particular order:
There’s a non-zero chance that phase 3 clinical trials do not confirm past results. I think this is unlikely. For starters, check the Corporate Presentation, page 15:
The first MDD phase 3 trial for DT120, Emerge, positioned DT120 as best-in-class, i.e., better than any other drug on the market. Isn’t it somewhat safe to assume that the second MDD phase 3 trial for DT120, Ascend, might confirm Emerge’s results? And after the sensational results of DT120 for the treatment of GAD, which were published in JAMA in 2025, is it all that absurd to assume that the upcoming phase 3 trial results for GAD are going to be… good? I don’t think so.
There’s a non-zero chance that, even with great results, the FDA doesn’t support the rescheduling of DT120. Yes, this could theoretically happen, but it’s highly unlikely. Especially after the White House’s Executive Order to further accelerate psychedelic medicine, which the House codified a few days ago. Plus, this FDA is very supportive of psychedelics and went so far as to give positive guidance on the matter this past July. Whatever you think of the Trump administration, this is probably the best time ever to be a psychedelic-medicine company.
That’s it. I might be blind, but I don’t see any other problem. Sure, you might’ve heard from bulls on other psychedelics companies that DT120 gives you a 12-hour trip (which is false, by the way — the average time required for participants to satisfy the study’s structured end-of-session criteria, as reported by Definium, is 5.8 hours) and that long-duration psychedelics are not suited for the current US insurance model.
I think this is baseless. First, who cares about the duration of the trip? What matters is how long you stay in remission, not how long the trip is. As of today, Spravato, an esketamine-based treatment for treatment-resistant depression (TRD), requires patients to visit a healthcare setting twice a week for the first four weeks, once a week for the following four weeks, and then once a week or every two weeks during maintenance.
That’s a hell of a lot of time! We don’t know how powerful DT120 will prove to be (we need all phase 3 trial readouts to be sure), but it might well be something you take a few times a year, maybe fewer.
The question then becomes, is there going to be a sufficient number of clinics to allow for even a 5% market penetration in such a short amount of time? That we don’t know, but in my opinion, it’s safe to assume that DT120 might piggyback on the infrastructure that was and is already being established for Spravato (which is a blockbuster drug, by the way). Not to mention that, if DT120 proves to be as effective as it seems to be, new clinics will be established.
My point is, patients can’t wait for some new drug to fulfill the promises that SSRIs and many other therapies have already made.
This is happening.
The only question is, will you make money out of it?
Disclaimer
Please, for the love of God and whatever else you deem sacred, don’t follow me on this trade only because you see big numbers on a screen. I’m already up almost 600% on DFTX, and I’m irresponsibly long. My cost basis is in the single digits. Even if trial results are bad and the stock gets cratered, odds are I will get out unscathed, or even make some money out of it. In other words, you and I are not friends, in fact, you should not take my word for it, or anyone else’s for that matter, when it comes to making money. The market is a bad place. Do your own research. Be cautious. Don’t buy 0DTE options or anything of the sort. Don’t bet the farm on a single trade. And don’t do anything stupid, either financial or medical. Don’t test these drugs on yourself. Don’t do anything your grandma wouldn’t do. I’m not your financial or medical advisor. I’m not your friend. This is not financial advice, or medical advice. In fact, this is not advice. I’m only saying this for posterity, so if it happens, I can say
That’s it.
Fingers crossed. And good luck.